Carbon black is coming down. The cost that set it is not. That gap is the story.
Spot carbon black in China has fallen roughly 13–15% from its mid-September high. Over the same period, the feedstock that decides the price rose about 45%. Both numbers are true at once, and for a buyer of black masterbatch the interesting part is what happens when pigment keeps falling while the maker of that pigment is losing money on every tonne.
By Zoe Lin, Export Manager, E-LUCK (Guangdong Yijuyuan Plastic Industry Technology Co., Ltd.)
Where the price actually is
| Indicator | Figure | Date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| National benchmark | CNY 11,692.86 / t | 1 Oct 2026 | SunSirs |
| Same, year on year | +59.74% — still a six-year high | 1 Oct 2026 | SunSirs |
| Same, week on week | −0.85% | 1 Oct 2026 | SunSirs |
| Shandong N330, tax incl. delivered | CNY 9,500–9,700 / t | 9 Oct 2026 | Mysteel / Longzhong |
| Shandong N330, ten days earlier | CNY 9,800–10,200 / t | 30 Sep 2026 | Longzhong via Mysteel |
| Shandong N330, mid-September peak | about CNY 11,200 / t | 3rd week Sep 2026 | Longzhong |
| Shandong N220 / N550 / N660 | 10,500–10,700 / 10,000–10,200 / 9,500–9,700 | 9 Oct 2026 | Mysteel / Longzhong |
| Shandong high-temperature coal tar, September | +45% accumulated | Sep 2026 | Sci99 |
| Resulting carbon black cost increase | CNY 3,000–4,000 / t | Sep 2026 | Sci99 |
| Industry-wide result, September | aggregate loss over CNY 120 million | Sep 2026 | China Rubber Industry Association |
| Semi-steel tyre capacity utilisation | −10.44 pp week on week | late Sep 2026 | trade press |
Two readings sit side by side in that table and both are correct. The national benchmark is 59.74% higher than a year ago and remains at a six-year high — but it is falling, at roughly 0.85% a week. And regional N330 has fallen about CNY 1,500 per tonne from its September peak, with Shandong assessment on 9 October described as stable to firm on new business rather than still sliding.
Why the fall cannot run very far
Coal tar is 70–80% of carbon black production cost. It is the number that decides this market, and it did not fall with the pigment price.
- Shanxi coking coal tightened. Coking plants cut loss-making output, coal tar availability fell, and Shandong high-temperature coal tar rose about 45% cumulatively through September. Sci99 translated that into CNY 3,000–4,000 per tonne of added carbon black cost.
- Producers were already underwater before the fall. The China Rubber Industry Association put the September industry result at an aggregate loss of over CNY 120 million, with most producers loss-making or barely profitable.
- The response has been to cut output, not to cut price further. Semi-steel tyre utilisation fell 10.44 percentage points week on week in late September, and full-steel 9.79 points. Producers defending margin by reducing volume is what puts a floor under a price that would otherwise keep sliding.
- Downstream has already accepted an increase. More than 20 tyre companies issued price rises during the National Day holiday, nine of them a second increase in a short window. Shengtai, General Science, Linglong and ZC Rubber raised full-steel, semi-steel and OTR prices by 2–5%, some grades up 6%, from 1 October. Tyres are more than 70% raw material by cost, and the three largest inputs — natural rubber, synthetic rubber and carbon black — are over 60% of it between them.
The mechanism matters more than the level. Carbon black fell because producers are working through high-priced orders and letting the benchmark soften. It stopped falling because the cost did not follow, and because their largest customers signed off on higher prices at the same time. A price with that structure is not one that a month of softness will clear.
What it means if you buy black masterbatch
A grade at 30% carbon content carries about 30% of any carbon black move by mass; the remainder sits in carrier resin. On our published grades loadings run from 30% to 65%, so the exposure you should expect is a range.
| Your grade | Carbon content | A CNY 1,500/t fall in pigment reaches you at roughly |
|---|---|---|
| PP30F · automotive interior | 30% | CNY 450 / t |
| PP103 | 40% class | CNY 600 / t |
| CM50 · cable jacket | 47% | CNY 705 / t |
| PP50 · high loading | 50% | CNY 750 / t |
That is the arithmetic, and it is not a quotation. The point worth holding is that your exposure is a number on your own data sheet, and most buyers cannot state it.
What follows from that in practice:
- Do not treat a falling carbon black index as a falling price. It is roughly a third of your cost at most, and the other part moves separately. Carrier resin is a different market and has been up 26–44% year on year while pigment fell.
- Ask for the validity period on any quote. Against a feedstock that has moved 45% in a month, a quotation with no expiry is an open-ended commitment — and it is not clear whose risk it is.
- Ask whether the supplier buys pigment or makes it. A producer that runs its own carbon black can hold through a soft market. A compounder buying pigment has less room, because the pigment price is someone else’s decision.
- Do not wait for the bottom. Producers cutting output are the mechanism that stops the fall. When utilisation recovers into the fourth quarter, the cost base still has to be met from somewhere.
Our position
We state carbon content, carrier resin and loading on every grade, and we quote with a validity period. We are a compounder buying pigment on the domestic Chinese market, not a carbon black producer, so we will not present a falling pigment price as something that benefits you automatically — the pass-through depends on the carrier, on the loading and on what we are paying for both.
Questions buyers ask
Is carbon black still falling or has it stopped?
Both readings are correct and they describe different things. The national benchmark was CNY 11,692.86 per tonne on 1 October 2026, up 59.74% year on year and still a six-year high, but down 0.85% over the week. Shandong N330 has fallen roughly CNY 1,500 per tonne from its mid-September peak of about CNY 11,200 to CNY 9,500-9,700 on 9 October, where new business was described as stable to firm rather than still sliding.
Why has carbon black fallen if its cost went up?
Because coal tar, which is 70-80% of production cost, rose about 45% cumulatively in Shandong through September, adding CNY 3,000-4,000 per tonne of cost, while pigment prices came off their peak. The industry was already carrying an aggregate loss of over CNY 120 million in September. Producers responded by cutting output rather than competing on price - semi-steel tyre utilisation fell 10.44 percentage points week on week in late September.
How much of a carbon black fall reaches my masterbatch price?
Roughly your loading percentage. A 30% carbon black grade sees about 30% of a pigment move pass through by mass. On the recent CNY 1,500 per tonne fall in Shandong N330, that is roughly CNY 450 per tonne on a 30% grade and CNY 705 per tonne on a 47% grade. The remainder is carrier resin, which moves independently and has been rising.
Should I wait for carbon black to fall further before buying?
There is a floor forming. Downstream tyre makers accepted increases of 2-6% from 1 October, producers are cutting output to defend margin, and the cost base has not fallen with the pigment. If you need the material, a quotation with a stated validity period is more useful than a forecast about where the bottom is.
Why do national benchmark and regional spot prices differ so much?
They are different measurement bases. The national benchmark aggregates across grades and regions; the Shandong figure is a tax-inclusive delivered price for one grade such as N330. They will not match exactly, which is why regional spot is the more useful number when discussing an actual order.
Related
- The SVHC list is at 253 — the compliance track running alongside the cost one
- Carbon black supply is re-sorting by country — tariffs, sanctions and trade agreements reshaping who you can buy pigment from
- Carbon black peaked in September 2026 — our earlier reading of the same movement, refined here
- Carrier resin prices, October 2026 — the part of your cost that has not fallen at all
- Carbon black supply chain — whether your supplier makes pigment or buys it
- Compare the 12 grades — carbon content, carrier and loading side by side